Nothing is decided, anything can happen and everything is possible. Impossible to anticipate the electoral behaviour of Colombia given the situations we live in.
The political system is illegitimate in its origin because the public power, in its different levels, arises from elections that are mostly the product of criminal practices, and in their behavior because corruption crossed the red line of its just proportions. Advantage of the separation of powers was the difficulty of corrupting their three Branches at the time, but we succeeded.
These political vices are translated into various forms of administrative corruption because officials decided to enrich themselves and recover the high costs of the campaigns.
This explains the increase in public debt, the dilapidation of the oil bonanza, the sale of Isagén, the increase in VAT, and justified public indignation.
In addition to the above, there are the reservations that deserve the agreement with the Farc and its implementation, which has required 6 constitutional reforms, several laws and 37 law decrees that create a new political, legal and institutional framework that the country still does not know, and if it will be able to meet the more than 400 obligations it acquired due to lack of operational and financial capacity of the State.
According to the UN Secretary General, “Colombia was generous in defining that new framework, making it the most advanced of any other peace process.” The JEP also says its an example for the world. Lisandro Duque adds that the “big steps negotiation” -Commission of Truth, Justice for Peace, JEP, special circumscriptions and restitution of lands- “imprint moral value to the Farc for having been proposed by them”.
The agreement and its developments are then political victory of the Farc or The Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia, which ‘sold’ to the government the thesis that in Colombia there is guerrilla and armed conflict because there is poverty, when “violence is not the product of poverty, the poor do not control the armed struggle, although in the armed groups there are many young people who come from poor means “(Daniel Pécaut).
But as they accepted that the injustice generates the conflict, they negotiated rural reform of 10 million hectares, create more peasant reserve zones and 16 new seats in Congress, grant ample amnesty, organised the JEP and hope to solve the problem of illicit crops and drug trafficking Lopez Michelsen said that “the revolution is not made by decree.” Now they want something similar by agreement.
Until the beginning of 2000, the FARC had “an important series of military and territorial successes” (Las Delicias, Puerres, Patascoy, Mitu, made “prisoners of war” to about 800 members of the public force). But they did not achieve any political triumph because of lack of support in the population and because the context did not favor them (fall of the Berlin wall, Chavez who was their model).
When they were militarily and politically diminished (Colombia and its conversion into a drug cartel), Santos granted them the greatest political triumph of all their history. To these situations is added the presence of a party-Revolutionary Alternative Force of the Common, Farc-that enjoys privileges and advantages that no other political organisation has.
This has happened because with the fast track, the granting of legislative powers to the government, the disappearance of the parties and the silence of those who had to ask for explanations, we opened a gap to our constitutional order and the political patrimony that many envy us: respect for Rule of law, democratic institutions and the rules of the game.
All this produces a climate of opinion that will have political consequences.
The radical left believes that it will come to power: “Colombia has been the exception to the social and popular movements of Latin America, but that must be its future and the greatest use of the peace process.”
Others think that it can be a breeding ground for a formula of welfare populism. The Colombian citizenship must take the reins of political policy into their own hands.